Sunday, January 22, 2006

Forex weekly technical analis (EUR/USD)

Last week Forex results.
As i said USD/CAD moved to the resistance level and then went down very quickly, but it was very hard to catch this move so we have to wait fo retracement to catch another bearish wave.

I made +60 pips on this, i hope you made more than that.
This week Forex technical analis.

Look at 1D EUR/USD chart

It is still going up, but is quite close to very strong resistance level.
Take note of MACD and RSI, they both are moving up what indicates bullish move, i drew trendlines on them so you can get better picture of it.
Look also at Fibonacci retracement, 38% level wasn't broken so it is also good news for bulls.

Now let's take a look at 4H chart.

Both MACD and RSI are going down, but trendlines were crossed and it is usually sign of strong bullish move which can take place.

Well there isn't much to talk about nothing is really sure when market is trading but i think it will be good to take LONG position near 38% retracement.

Sunday, January 15, 2006

Forex weekly techical analysis

Forex technical analis
I will post here my weekly technical analysis on popular currencies pairs.
Today i will cover USD/CAD so lets get started, look at the daily chart

Forex daily chartNot much to talk about but we can get clear picture of what is going on, this pair is currently heading down and is near the resistance level, so it will be proboably go down as this is very strong resistance (tested many times). Now look at MACD histogram, the divargence is very small it indicates that bull momentum is very weak, so i think USD/CAD will stay bearish.
Now lets look at 4H chart

-Check out trendline, it was hit 3 times so it is quite important trendline
-Now look at Fibbonaci retracemnet last bull move was retraced to 66%, and it looks like this resistance level was strong enough to defend itself
-Look at RSI i put a trendline on it and we can clearly see that RSI is also in bullish trend

So putting it all together i think we will have short term bullish run back to 1.1725+-25 pips and then double top on 4H chart will be formed which ofcourse mean trend reversal and market will become bearish.

Quick fundamental analis.
CAD is strongly correlated with oil price wich is heading up, so CAD will most likely get stronger and stronger, on the other hand USD is also heading up but it is not as strong as CAD is.
So there is high probability of bearish trend.

What to do?
This is what i will do, but keep in mind that no one knows where the market is going so i can easily be wrong.
I will take long position near the resistance level about 1.16 and put stop loss based on 15M chart so you have to do it yourself but i won't make it more than 30pips away from opening price, and i will put take profit somwhere about 100 pips away from open price proboably 1.1725.
When the bullish move will end i will wait for a trend reversal candle (1D chart).

So this is it, waiting for your comments.