Polish Currency

If you are considering, long term investment, like one or two months than Polish currency might be interesting for you. For the last year it got stronger and stronger. Just checkout the charts below, this are EUR/PLN and USD/PLN, timeframe 1 year, on both charts you can see what i would call quality trend. Line is at 45 degrees, almost no corrections.

EUR/PLN

Let's start with EUR/PLN, i won't even talk about technical analysis, indicators and so on, you can see what is happening here. Just draw the line wait for minor correction and get into trade. You maybe wondering.

Ok it went down for a year, won't it turn back? This is a good question, i think this trend can end up pretty soon maybe 3 or 4 months, hard to say really. The problem here is that Polish bussiness has a problem with strong PLN against EUR, because a lot of companies export their products to west Europe. With strong Polish currency, their products are actually more expensive and thus less competetive.

The bottom line is, Polish bussinessmen want this trend to stop, and i believe that government will do what they ask for, the question is when?


USD/PLN

Now look at USD/PLN chart it looks almost the same as EUR/PLN, so again i won't go into details how to trade it.
Now to answer the same question as earlier, is this trend here to stay? I think it is, because gas price in Poland pretty much depends on gas price in USA. When gas price in USA gets more expensive it also gets more expensive in Poland (and rest of the world btw).

However, if gas price will go up, but at the same time Polish currency would get stronger against dollar, then it won't affect Poland as much as it would without USD/PLN going down.

Now if i got you interested in this form of investment, you will need a broker, which allows to trade Polish currency or at least EUR/PLN and USD/PLN. As far as i am concerned there are not much brokers who allow this. The ones who do are Oanda and maybe SaxoBank however i am not sure of that.

That is not end of the problems, even if you will find broker who allows to trade this pairs, probably spread on them will be somewhere between 20 and 40 pips, so like i said it is only good to trade them if you are looking for long term investment not scalping or even swing trading.

12 Major currency pairs

Well to be honest there is no such thing as 12 major currency pairs, there are actually about 7 (depends on how you count) major currencies, and well ... many major currency pairs.

So what's with your title, you maybe wondering? Let me justify myself, like i said there is no such thing as 12 major currency pairs, this is my list of currency pairs i like to trade, all my currency pairs are made from major currencies thus the name "12 Major currency pairs", however i do not advice you to use this name in group of professional forex traders, in best case they will get confused ... i do not want to tell what can happen in the worst case here :).

I will give you the list shortly but let me first explain why i choosed this currency pairs. There are few reasons, there are quite big moves on them in short periods of time, small spread, and i find it easy to apply technical analysis to those currency pairs.

Ok here it is:

• EUR/USD - well obvius, there is not a single trader who does not trade this currency pair
• GBP/USD - pretty similar pair to EUR/USD however it is quicker, and the moves are about 50% bigger, 150 PIPs daily is not uncommon for this pair.
• USD/JPY - quite predictible lately, notice that most of the time USD/JPY is bullish it moves slowly up, when there is a correction on this pair, it moves few hundreds pips down in just few days.
• EUR/JPY - pretty much the same as USD/JPY but moves are less predictible
• AUD/USD - good alternative where you have no idea where EUR/USD will go, however moves on this pair are smaller then on EUR/USD
• USD/CAD - pretty predictible, mainly because CAD is highly correlated with oil price, and you know what oil price chart looks like right?
• USD/CHF - very strong correlation between this pair and EUR/USD
• EUR/CHF - the same as USD/JPY slowly moves up and then quickly falls down
• EUR/CAD - high spread, well i do not know i just like to trade, i always find it easy to predict where will it move and how much
• EUR/GBP - very slow currency pair, however sometimes spread can be low on it
• EUR/AUD - this is very personal pick, i like to trade, but spread is very high so i only use it for long term trades
• NZD/USD - yes NZD is not really a major currency, but i like to trade this pair because it has low spread, easy to predict and has weak correlation to any other pair on this list

Well that is all, if you have your own private currency pairs list feel free to share it here in comments section, also i will be happy to answer any of your questions.

Forex Trading Strategy: Hedge Hog (GBP/CHF)

This is known Hedge Hog strategy but with diffrent currency pair, diffrent set up, incredibly high returns and drawdown, but i think it is really worth a look.

Here is what to do:
Every day at 24:00 GMT go to your account and put on Hedge Transaction on GBP/CHF or with open price at current level.
Set Take Profit: 20 pips
Set Stop Loss: 450 pips
for both transactions (LONG and SHORT)

I made back tests for last 3 years and this are the results:
leverage 1:10 (starting capital 10 000$, lot size 1 lot)
3 pip spread included in results
system shows average 13,37% monthly return
largest drawdown is 4 100$ which is about 41% of starting capital
Maximum loss in single trade -284 pips


I know that drawdown and maximum loss are very disappointing they are quite high, so you may want to decrease leverage from 1:10 to 1:5 drawdown will be then much more acceptable, but ofcourse avg. return will be only 7% monthly.

If you are interested then go ahead and try this system out with a demo account.
As always email me for spreadsheet with backtest results.

Forex Trading Strategy: Hedge Hog (EUR/CHF)

I have recently done some reaserch on Forex to find strategy that will be easy to trade no double meaning when it comes to entry points, takes minimum amount of time, and ofcourse is profitable.

Here is what to do:

Every day at 24:00 GMT go to your account and put on Hedge Transaction on EUR/CHF or with open price at current level.
Set Take Profit: 10 pips
Set Stop Loss: 330 pips
for both transactions (LONG and SHORT)

I made back tests for last 3 years and this are the results:
leverage 1:10 (starting capital 10 000$, lot size 1 lot)
3 pip spread included in results
system shows average 4,16% monthly return
largest drawdown is 2 100$ which is about 21% of starting capital
Maximum loss in single trade -129 pips


Now what makes this strategy succesfull, first of all trading time, you put on transaction at the beginning of asian session which is often reanging about 30 pips so we have got higher Stop losses to prevent us from loosing capital, (in fact stop losses could be removed) and small TP to takesome profit.

If you are interested then go ahead and try this system out with a demo account.
Also email me for spreadsheet with backtest results.