Polish Currency

If you are considering, long term investment, like one or two months than Polish currency might be interesting for you. For the last year it got stronger and stronger. Just checkout the charts below, this are EUR/PLN and USD/PLN, timeframe 1 year, on both charts you can see what i would call quality trend. Line is at 45 degrees, almost no corrections.

EUR/PLN

Let's start with EUR/PLN, i won't even talk about technical analysis, indicators and so on, you can see what is happening here. Just draw the line wait for minor correction and get into trade. You maybe wondering.

Ok it went down for a year, won't it turn back? This is a good question, i think this trend can end up pretty soon maybe 3 or 4 months, hard to say really. The problem here is that Polish bussiness has a problem with strong PLN against EUR, because a lot of companies export their products to west Europe. With strong Polish currency, their products are actually more expensive and thus less competetive.

The bottom line is, Polish bussinessmen want this trend to stop, and i believe that government will do what they ask for, the question is when?


USD/PLN

Now look at USD/PLN chart it looks almost the same as EUR/PLN, so again i won't go into details how to trade it.
Now to answer the same question as earlier, is this trend here to stay? I think it is, because gas price in Poland pretty much depends on gas price in USA. When gas price in USA gets more expensive it also gets more expensive in Poland (and rest of the world btw).

However, if gas price will go up, but at the same time Polish currency would get stronger against dollar, then it won't affect Poland as much as it would without USD/PLN going down.

Now if i got you interested in this form of investment, you will need a broker, which allows to trade Polish currency or at least EUR/PLN and USD/PLN. As far as i am concerned there are not much brokers who allow this. The ones who do are Oanda and maybe SaxoBank however i am not sure of that.

That is not end of the problems, even if you will find broker who allows to trade this pairs, probably spread on them will be somewhere between 20 and 40 pips, so like i said it is only good to trade them if you are looking for long term investment not scalping or even swing trading.

Amero Revolution?

Recently i was watching movie Zeitgeist. Pretty cool movie if you haven't seen it i advice you to do it. It consists of three parts first is about Christianity and Jesus, second amd third are about America, power and money which interests most i belive.

Anyway, in a part three there is mentioned new currency Amero. Which will be new currency for North America (Canada, USA, Mexico). So it seems that end for our favourite currency pair is neer, and the question is not: will it happen? will USD will be replaced with Amero? but rather when will it happen? From my informations it will be around 2010, but really it is hard to tell.

The best way to replace USD is to make it weaker and weaker which is happening and we can see it on our Forex charts. So maybe it is a good idea to take long term position against dollar?

This is not important. What is important is this. How will new currency affect Forex market? In my opinion not much. It will be a currency as any other currency on Forex, the only problem will be a fact that there will be no history for it.

This means no backtesting, and even no "space" for technical analysis. However these will be problems only for long term traders or swing traders. I guess scalpers will be okay with this because they do not need a lot of data, but i do not know i am not a scalper.

However, what concerns me most is that we will loose three currencies and gain only one new, which happen further again because of Asian union which is getting ready to introduce asian currency (asio?).

Watch out for EA scams!!!

Recently i found forum post at ForexFactory, where author talked about some scammer selling MetaTrader expert advisor, unfortunetly i can't find this post now to give you permament link so i will just tell you what i know about the case.

First of all this "Expert Advisor" costs 25 000$ (a lot of cash) but from what i have heared it isn't worth even 25 cents. So if you recive such offer by spam or something it is best just to ignore it.

Ofcourse if you find offer interesting then you may want to buy it, in this case it is best to do your own due dilligence, search forums, ask questions etc. Do not buy just because advertisment looks good!

Well this is second forex bad news this week, so i guess coming days can be only better .

Stop using HedgeHog!

I have a quite sad news for you, i backtested both hedgehog strategies with MetaTrader which i described earlier and results are not as good as i thought.

More over using HedgeHog you cannot even breakeven it is a fast way to loose all your money. It is interesting because when i backtested it with spreadsheet results where quite good, and i used the worst case scenerio because i was backtesting this strategy on daily bars, so modeling quality was quite low.

Although HedgeHog seemed to be simple and effective strategy, without a big drawdown, so everything should be ok but ... well it isn't.

If you want to try to trade this strategy anyway, then you better try it on demo first and do not use big lots.

Do not buy unknown Forex Trading Strategy!

Lately i was many times asked about, forex trading strategies for sale, they always offer big returns easy trading without stress and the can be applied by everyone.

So i decided to make my own investigation, and i must admit i had big issue with those trading strategies, they all show proofs of earning, have got "happy" customers statments even with their happy faces, but on the other hand i never heard that someone made money trading bought strategy. I actually couldn't find anyone who was or is using one of this strategies, so i asked asuthors.

Results where terryfinig it happens those who sell this strategies don't even know what they are talking about, for example what is "forex trading hours" some of sellers are not even aware of that they can trade forex 24 hours a day!!! Not to mention they do not even know what leverage, long or short position is.

There also happens sellers who know what forex is, proboably traded for some years but there are no proofs they made money, or that they strategies are succesfull.

Finally there are few gems i can recommend, i contacted their authors and belive buying this books will be a good investment.

1. Bird Watching in Lion Country
2. Guide to Profitable Forex Day Trading
3. Forex Trading Strategies
   

If you have any experiences with any of this strategies please comment my post or write to me, it will be interesting for us all.