Saturday, June 10, 2006

Euro FX Trade

We just exited our June Euro put spread for a little more than a 200% return in 11 trading days. As I mentioned in the June spread I remain a longer term bull of this market. Today's breakdown is nothing more than a shakeout of the longs one day before June's option expiration, coincidence?...I think not.

We may break down a bit more in the coming days but by then end of this month I expect to see this market back towards 1.30. Mr. Bernanke may have spooked the markets but it is nothing more than the typical over reaction that we are seeing in the Dollar.

The ECB did surprise us by only raising rate by .25 point rather than the .50 point that was expected. While this story was spun as bearish, I believe that as a whole the European's financial house is in better order than here in the US and we should see that reflected in the currency exchange rates as this becomes more evident.

Read more here.

1 comment:

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